Ces informations proviennent du " Global Commodity Price Prospects 2003" de la Banque Mondiale.
Commodity prices and price projections in current dollars
| Energy |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| Coal, Australia |
$/mt |
n.a. |
n.a. |
36.67 |
26.25 |
32.31 |
26.50 |
26.00 |
27.00 |
29.50 |
32.00 |
| Crude oil, average |
$/bbl |
1.21 |
36.87 |
22.88 |
28.23 |
24.35 |
25.00 |
23.00 |
18.00 |
19.00 |
21.00 |
| Natural gas, Europe |
$/mmbtu |
n.a. |
3.40 |
2.55 |
3.86 |
4.06 |
3.00 |
2.80 |
2.60 |
2.75 |
3.00 |
| Natural gas, U.S. |
$/mmbtu |
0.17 |
1.55 |
1.70 |
4.31 |
3.96 |
2.50 |
3.20 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.25 |
| Beverages |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| Cocoa |
cents/kg |
67.5 |
260.4 |
126.7 |
90.6 |
106.9 |
182.0 |
182.0 |
160.0 |
157.0 |
168.0 |
| Coffee, other milds |
cents/kg |
114.7 |
346.6 |
197.2 |
192.0 |
137.3 |
133.0 |
141.1 |
187.4 |
242.5 |
280.0 |
| Coffee, robusta |
cents/kg |
91.4 |
324.3 |
118.2 |
91.3 |
60.7 |
63.9 |
70.6 |
83.8 |
110.0 |
142.6 |
| Tea, auctions (3) average |
cents/kg |
83.5 |
165.9 |
205.8 |
187.6 |
159.8 |
150.0 |
155.0 |
165.0 |
175.0 |
180.0 |
| Fats and oils |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| Coconut oil |
$/mt |
397.2 |
673.8 |
336.5 |
450.3 |
318.1 |
415.0 |
450.0 |
600.0 |
645.0 |
670.0 |
| Copra |
$/mt |
224.8 |
452.7 |
230.7 |
304.8 |
202.1 |
268.0 |
375.0 |
450.0 |
480.0 |
500.0 |
| Groundnut oil |
$/mt |
378.6 |
858.8 |
963.7 |
713.7 |
680.3 |
680.0 |
750.0 |
820.0 |
850.0 |
875.0 |
| Palm oil |
$/mt |
260.1 |
583.7 |
289.8 |
310.3 |
285.7 |
385.0 |
390.0 |
400.0 |
450.0 |
475.0 |
| Soybean meal |
$/mt |
102.6 |
262.4 |
200.2 |
189.2 |
181.0 |
175.0 |
200.0 |
205.0 |
215.0 |
220.0 |
| Soybean oil |
$/mt |
286.3 |
597.6 |
447.3 |
338.1 |
354.0 |
440.0 |
450.0 |
430.0 |
460.0 |
505.0 |
| Soybeans |
$/mt |
116.9 |
296.2 |
246.8 |
211.8 |
195.8 |
210.0 |
230.0 |
235.0 |
240.0 |
250.0 |
| Grains |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| Maize |
$/mt |
58.4 |
125.3 |
109.3 |
88.5 |
89.6 |
100.0 |
125.0 |
115.0 |
120.0 |
130.0 |
| Rice, Thai, 5 percent |
$/mt |
126.3 |
410.7 |
270.9 |
202.4 |
172.8 |
192.0 |
210.0 |
235.0 |
260.0 |
275.0 |
| Sorghum |
$/mt |
51.8 |
128.9 |
103.9 |
88.0 |
95.2 |
102.0 |
125.0 |
116.6 |
119.5 |
128.0 |
| Wheat, U.S., HRW |
$/mt |
54.9 |
172.7 |
135.5 |
114.1 |
126.8 |
151.5 |
180.0 |
150.0 |
160.0 |
165.0 |
| Other food |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| Bananas, U.S. |
$/mt |
166.1 |
377.3 |
540.9 |
424.0 |
583.3 |
530.0 |
518.1 |
529.1 |
568.0 |
590.0 |
| Beef, U.S. |
cents/kg |
130.4 |
276.0 |
256.3 |
193.2 |
212.9 |
215.0 |
230.0 |
228.0 |
222.0 |
230.0 |
| Oranges |
$/mt |
168.0 |
400.2 |
531.1 |
363.2 |
595.5 |
588.0 |
550.0 |
500.0 |
525.0 |
550.0 |
| Shrimp, Mexican |
cents/kg |
n.a. |
1,15 |
1,07 |
1,51 |
1,52 |
1,04 |
1,15 |
1,65 |
1,7 |
1,72 |
| Sugar, world |
cents/kg |
8.2 |
63.16 |
27.67 |
18.04 |
19.04 |
15.00 |
15.00 |
17.60 |
21.00 |
22.00 |
| Timber |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| Logs, Cameroon |
$/cum |
43.0 |
251.7 |
343.5 |
275.4 |
266.1 |
265.0 |
275.0 |
300.0 |
338.0 |
385.0 |
| Logs, Malaysia |
$/cum |
43.1 |
195.5 |
177.2 |
190.0 |
159.1 |
163.0 |
170.0 |
215.0 |
260.0 |
295.0 |
| Sawnwood, Malaysia |
$/cum |
175.0 |
396.0 |
533.0 |
594.7 |
481.4 |
528.0 |
560.0 |
625.0 |
720.0 |
820.0 |
| Other raw materials |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| Cotton |
cents/kg |
67.6 |
206.2 |
181.9 |
130.2 |
105.8 |
100.00 |
110.2 |
127.9 |
149.9 |
160.0 |
| Rubber, RSS1, Malaysia |
cents/kg |
40.7 |
142.5 |
86.5 |
69.1 |
60.0 |
79.4 |
81.6 |
83.8 |
87.7 |
95.1 |
| Tobacco |
$/mt |
1,08 |
2,28 |
3,39 |
2,98 |
3,01 |
2,77 |
3 |
3,25 |
3,28 |
3,3 |
| Fertilizers |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| DAP |
$/mt |
54.0 |
222.2 |
171.4 |
154.2 |
147.7 |
158.0 |
168.0 |
170.0 |
175.0 |
180.0 |
| Phosphate rock |
$/mt |
11.0 |
46.71 |
40.50 |
43.75 |
41.77 |
40.80 |
41.00 |
43.00 |
45.00 |
46.00 |
| Potassium chloride |
$/mt |
32.0 |
115.7 |
98.1 |
122.5 |
118.1 |
113.0 |
120.0 |
124.0 |
127.0 |
130.0 |
| TSP |
$/mt |
43.0 |
180.3 |
131.8 |
137.7 |
126.9 |
133.0 |
140.0 |
150.0 |
150.0 |
155.0 |
| Urea, East Europe, bagged |
$/mt |
n.a. |
n.a.a |
119.3 |
101.1 |
95.3 |
93.0 |
108.6 |
126.7 |
131.3 |
135.8 |
| Metals and minerals |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| Aluminium |
$/mt |
556 |
1,46 |
1,64 |
1,55 |
1,44 |
1,34 |
1,4 |
1,5 |
1,6 |
1,7 |
| Copper |
$/mt |
1,42 |
2,18 |
2,66 |
1,81 |
1,58 |
1,545 |
1,65 |
1,9 |
2 |
2,05 |
| Gold |
$/toz |
35.9 |
607.9 |
383.5 |
279.0 |
271.0 |
310.0 |
300.0 |
275.0 |
300.0 |
300.0 |
| Iron ore, Carajas |
cents/dmtu |
9.84 |
28.09 |
32.50 |
28.79 |
30.03 |
29.50 |
30.00 |
31.00 |
32.00 |
32.50 |
| Lead |
cents/kg |
30.3 |
90.6 |
81.1 |
45.4 |
47.6 |
45.0 |
48.0 |
55.0 |
60.0 |
62.5 |
| Nickel |
$/mt |
2,85 |
6,52 |
8,86 |
8,64 |
5,95 |
6,7 |
7,5 |
7,5 |
6,7 |
6,8 |
| Silver |
cents/toz |
177.0 |
2,06 |
482.0 |
499.9 |
448.4 |
405.0 |
450.0 |
525.0 |
540.0 |
550.0 |
| Tin |
cents/kg |
367.3 |
1,68 |
608.5 |
543.6 |
448.4 |
405.0 |
450.0 |
525.0 |
540.0 |
550.0 |
| Zinc |
cents/kg |
29.6 |
76.1 |
151.4 |
112.8 |
88.6 |
77.0 |
84.0 |
100.0 |
105.0 |
110.0 |
| n.a. = Not available. |
$ = U.S. dollar, cents = U.S. cent, bbl = barrel, cum = cubic meter, dmtu = dry metric ton unit, kg = kilogram, mmbtu = million British thermal unit, mt = metric ton, and toz = troy ounce.
Note: Projections as of November 12, 2002.
Source: World Bank, Economic Policy and Prospects Group. |
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