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PRÉVISIONS DE COURTS A LONG TERMES

Ces informations proviennent du " Global Commodity Price Prospects 2003" de la Banque Mondiale.

Commodity prices and price projections in current dollars
Energy Unit Actual Projections
1970 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2010 2015
Coal, Australia $/mt n.a. n.a. 36.67 26.25 32.31 26.50 26.00 27.00 29.50 32.00
Crude oil, average $/bbl 1.21 36.87 22.88 28.23 24.35 25.00 23.00 18.00 19.00 21.00
Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu n.a. 3.40 2.55 3.86 4.06 3.00 2.80 2.60 2.75 3.00
Natural gas, U.S. $/mmbtu 0.17 1.55 1.70 4.31 3.96 2.50 3.20 3.00 3.00 3.25
Beverages Unit Actual Projections
1970 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2010 2015
Cocoa cents/kg 67.5 260.4 126.7 90.6 106.9 182.0 182.0 160.0 157.0 168.0
Coffee, other milds cents/kg 114.7 346.6 197.2 192.0 137.3 133.0 141.1 187.4 242.5 280.0
Coffee, robusta cents/kg 91.4 324.3 118.2 91.3 60.7 63.9 70.6 83.8 110.0 142.6
Tea, auctions (3) average cents/kg 83.5 165.9 205.8 187.6 159.8 150.0 155.0 165.0 175.0 180.0
Fats and oils Unit Actual Projections
1970 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2010 2015
Coconut oil $/mt 397.2 673.8 336.5 450.3 318.1 415.0 450.0 600.0 645.0 670.0
Copra $/mt 224.8 452.7 230.7 304.8 202.1 268.0 375.0 450.0 480.0 500.0
Groundnut oil $/mt 378.6 858.8 963.7 713.7 680.3 680.0 750.0 820.0 850.0 875.0
Palm oil $/mt 260.1 583.7 289.8 310.3 285.7 385.0 390.0 400.0 450.0 475.0
Soybean meal $/mt 102.6 262.4 200.2 189.2 181.0 175.0 200.0 205.0 215.0 220.0
Soybean oil $/mt 286.3 597.6 447.3 338.1 354.0 440.0 450.0 430.0 460.0 505.0
Soybeans $/mt 116.9 296.2 246.8 211.8 195.8 210.0 230.0 235.0 240.0 250.0
Grains Unit Actual Projections
1970 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2010 2015
Maize $/mt 58.4 125.3 109.3 88.5 89.6 100.0 125.0 115.0 120.0 130.0
Rice, Thai, 5 percent $/mt 126.3 410.7 270.9 202.4 172.8 192.0 210.0 235.0 260.0 275.0
Sorghum $/mt 51.8 128.9 103.9 88.0 95.2 102.0 125.0 116.6 119.5 128.0
Wheat, U.S., HRW $/mt 54.9 172.7 135.5 114.1 126.8 151.5 180.0 150.0 160.0 165.0
Other food Unit Actual Projections
1970 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2010 2015
Bananas, U.S. $/mt 166.1 377.3 540.9 424.0 583.3 530.0 518.1 529.1 568.0 590.0
Beef, U.S. cents/kg 130.4 276.0 256.3 193.2 212.9 215.0 230.0 228.0 222.0 230.0
Oranges $/mt 168.0 400.2 531.1 363.2 595.5 588.0 550.0 500.0 525.0 550.0
Shrimp, Mexican cents/kg n.a. 1,15 1,07 1,51 1,52 1,04 1,15 1,65 1,7 1,72
Sugar, world cents/kg 8.2 63.16 27.67 18.04 19.04 15.00 15.00 17.60 21.00 22.00
Timber Unit Actual Projections
1970 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2010 2015
Logs, Cameroon $/cum 43.0 251.7 343.5 275.4 266.1 265.0 275.0 300.0 338.0 385.0
Logs, Malaysia $/cum 43.1 195.5 177.2 190.0 159.1 163.0 170.0 215.0 260.0 295.0
Sawnwood, Malaysia $/cum 175.0 396.0 533.0 594.7 481.4 528.0 560.0 625.0 720.0 820.0
Other raw materials Unit Actual Projections
1970 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2010 2015
Cotton cents/kg 67.6 206.2 181.9 130.2 105.8 100.00 110.2 127.9 149.9 160.0
Rubber, RSS1, Malaysia cents/kg 40.7 142.5 86.5 69.1 60.0 79.4 81.6 83.8 87.7 95.1
Tobacco $/mt 1,08 2,28 3,39 2,98 3,01 2,77 3 3,25 3,28 3,3
Fertilizers Unit Actual Projections
1970 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2010 2015
DAP $/mt 54.0 222.2 171.4 154.2 147.7 158.0 168.0 170.0 175.0 180.0
Phosphate rock $/mt 11.0 46.71 40.50 43.75 41.77 40.80 41.00 43.00 45.00 46.00
Potassium chloride $/mt 32.0 115.7 98.1 122.5 118.1 113.0 120.0 124.0 127.0 130.0
TSP $/mt 43.0 180.3 131.8 137.7 126.9 133.0 140.0 150.0 150.0 155.0
Urea, East Europe, bagged $/mt n.a. n.a.a 119.3 101.1 95.3 93.0 108.6 126.7 131.3 135.8
Metals and minerals Unit Actual Projections
1970 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2010 2015
Aluminium $/mt 556 1,46 1,64 1,55 1,44 1,34 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7
Copper $/mt 1,42 2,18 2,66 1,81 1,58 1,545 1,65 1,9 2 2,05
Gold $/toz 35.9 607.9 383.5 279.0 271.0 310.0 300.0 275.0 300.0 300.0
Iron ore, Carajas cents/dmtu 9.84 28.09 32.50 28.79 30.03 29.50 30.00 31.00 32.00 32.50
Lead cents/kg 30.3 90.6 81.1 45.4 47.6 45.0 48.0 55.0 60.0 62.5
Nickel $/mt 2,85 6,52 8,86 8,64 5,95 6,7 7,5 7,5 6,7 6,8
Silver cents/toz 177.0 2,06 482.0 499.9 448.4 405.0 450.0 525.0 540.0 550.0
Tin cents/kg 367.3 1,68 608.5 543.6 448.4 405.0 450.0 525.0 540.0 550.0
Zinc cents/kg 29.6 76.1 151.4 112.8 88.6 77.0 84.0 100.0 105.0 110.0
n.a. = Not available.
$ = U.S. dollar, cents = U.S. cent, bbl = barrel, cum = cubic meter, dmtu = dry metric ton unit, kg = kilogram, mmbtu = million British thermal unit, mt = metric ton, and toz = troy ounce.

Note: Projections as of November 12, 2002.

Source: World Bank, Economic Policy and Prospects Group.