PRÉVISIONS DE COURTS A LONG TERMESCes informations proviennent du " Global Commodity Price Prospects 2003" de la Banque Mondiale.
Commodity prices and price projections in current dollars| Energy |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| Coal, Australia |
$/mt |
n.a. |
n.a. |
36.67 |
26.25 |
32.31 |
26.50 |
26.00 |
27.00 |
29.50 |
32.00 |
| Crude oil, average |
$/bbl |
1.21 |
36.87 |
22.88 |
28.23 |
24.35 |
25.00 |
23.00 |
18.00 |
19.00 |
21.00 |
| Natural gas, Europe |
$/mmbtu |
n.a. |
3.40 |
2.55 |
3.86 |
4.06 |
3.00 |
2.80 |
2.60 |
2.75 |
3.00 |
| Natural gas, U.S. |
$/mmbtu |
0.17 |
1.55 |
1.70 |
4.31 |
3.96 |
2.50 |
3.20 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.25 |
| Beverages |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| Cocoa |
cents/kg |
67.5 |
260.4 |
126.7 |
90.6 |
106.9 |
182.0 |
182.0 |
160.0 |
157.0 |
168.0 |
| Coffee, other milds |
cents/kg |
114.7 |
346.6 |
197.2 |
192.0 |
137.3 |
133.0 |
141.1 |
187.4 |
242.5 |
280.0 |
| Coffee, robusta |
cents/kg |
91.4 |
324.3 |
118.2 |
91.3 |
60.7 |
63.9 |
70.6 |
83.8 |
110.0 |
142.6 |
| Tea, auctions (3) average |
cents/kg |
83.5 |
165.9 |
205.8 |
187.6 |
159.8 |
150.0 |
155.0 |
165.0 |
175.0 |
180.0 |
| Fats and oils |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| Coconut oil |
$/mt |
397.2 |
673.8 |
336.5 |
450.3 |
318.1 |
415.0 |
450.0 |
600.0 |
645.0 |
670.0 |
| Copra |
$/mt |
224.8 |
452.7 |
230.7 |
304.8 |
202.1 |
268.0 |
375.0 |
450.0 |
480.0 |
500.0 |
| Groundnut oil |
$/mt |
378.6 |
858.8 |
963.7 |
713.7 |
680.3 |
680.0 |
750.0 |
820.0 |
850.0 |
875.0 |
| Palm oil |
$/mt |
260.1 |
583.7 |
289.8 |
310.3 |
285.7 |
385.0 |
390.0 |
400.0 |
450.0 |
475.0 |
| Soybean meal |
$/mt |
102.6 |
262.4 |
200.2 |
189.2 |
181.0 |
175.0 |
200.0 |
205.0 |
215.0 |
220.0 |
| Soybean oil |
$/mt |
286.3 |
597.6 |
447.3 |
338.1 |
354.0 |
440.0 |
450.0 |
430.0 |
460.0 |
505.0 |
| Soybeans |
$/mt |
116.9 |
296.2 |
246.8 |
211.8 |
195.8 |
210.0 |
230.0 |
235.0 |
240.0 |
250.0 |
| Grains |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| Maize |
$/mt |
58.4 |
125.3 |
109.3 |
88.5 |
89.6 |
100.0 |
125.0 |
115.0 |
120.0 |
130.0 |
| Rice, Thai, 5 percent |
$/mt |
126.3 |
410.7 |
270.9 |
202.4 |
172.8 |
192.0 |
210.0 |
235.0 |
260.0 |
275.0 |
| Sorghum |
$/mt |
51.8 |
128.9 |
103.9 |
88.0 |
95.2 |
102.0 |
125.0 |
116.6 |
119.5 |
128.0 |
| Wheat, U.S., HRW |
$/mt |
54.9 |
172.7 |
135.5 |
114.1 |
126.8 |
151.5 |
180.0 |
150.0 |
160.0 |
165.0 |
| Other food |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| Bananas, U.S. |
$/mt |
166.1 |
377.3 |
540.9 |
424.0 |
583.3 |
530.0 |
518.1 |
529.1 |
568.0 |
590.0 |
| Beef, U.S. |
cents/kg |
130.4 |
276.0 |
256.3 |
193.2 |
212.9 |
215.0 |
230.0 |
228.0 |
222.0 |
230.0 |
| Oranges |
$/mt |
168.0 |
400.2 |
531.1 |
363.2 |
595.5 |
588.0 |
550.0 |
500.0 |
525.0 |
550.0 |
| Shrimp, Mexican |
cents/kg |
n.a. |
1,15 |
1,07 |
1,51 |
1,52 |
1,04 |
1,15 |
1,65 |
1,7 |
1,72 |
| Sugar, world |
cents/kg |
8.2 |
63.16 |
27.67 |
18.04 |
19.04 |
15.00 |
15.00 |
17.60 |
21.00 |
22.00 |
| Timber |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| Logs, Cameroon |
$/cum |
43.0 |
251.7 |
343.5 |
275.4 |
266.1 |
265.0 |
275.0 |
300.0 |
338.0 |
385.0 |
| Logs, Malaysia |
$/cum |
43.1 |
195.5 |
177.2 |
190.0 |
159.1 |
163.0 |
170.0 |
215.0 |
260.0 |
295.0 |
| Sawnwood, Malaysia |
$/cum |
175.0 |
396.0 |
533.0 |
594.7 |
481.4 |
528.0 |
560.0 |
625.0 |
720.0 |
820.0 |
| Other raw materials |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| Cotton |
cents/kg |
67.6 |
206.2 |
181.9 |
130.2 |
105.8 |
100.00 |
110.2 |
127.9 |
149.9 |
160.0 |
| Rubber, RSS1, Malaysia |
cents/kg |
40.7 |
142.5 |
86.5 |
69.1 |
60.0 |
79.4 |
81.6 |
83.8 |
87.7 |
95.1 |
| Tobacco |
$/mt |
1,08 |
2,28 |
3,39 |
2,98 |
3,01 |
2,77 |
3 |
3,25 |
3,28 |
3,3 |
| Fertilizers |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| DAP |
$/mt |
54.0 |
222.2 |
171.4 |
154.2 |
147.7 |
158.0 |
168.0 |
170.0 |
175.0 |
180.0 |
| Phosphate rock |
$/mt |
11.0 |
46.71 |
40.50 |
43.75 |
41.77 |
40.80 |
41.00 |
43.00 |
45.00 |
46.00 |
| Potassium chloride |
$/mt |
32.0 |
115.7 |
98.1 |
122.5 |
118.1 |
113.0 |
120.0 |
124.0 |
127.0 |
130.0 |
| TSP |
$/mt |
43.0 |
180.3 |
131.8 |
137.7 |
126.9 |
133.0 |
140.0 |
150.0 |
150.0 |
155.0 |
| Urea, East Europe, bagged |
$/mt |
n.a. |
n.a.a |
119.3 |
101.1 |
95.3 |
93.0 |
108.6 |
126.7 |
131.3 |
135.8 |
| Metals and minerals |
Unit |
Actual |
Projections |
| 1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
| Aluminium |
$/mt |
556 |
1,46 |
1,64 |
1,55 |
1,44 |
1,34 |
1,4 |
1,5 |
1,6 |
1,7 |
| Copper |
$/mt |
1,42 |
2,18 |
2,66 |
1,81 |
1,58 |
1,545 |
1,65 |
1,9 |
2 |
2,05 |
| Gold |
$/toz |
35.9 |
607.9 |
383.5 |
279.0 |
271.0 |
310.0 |
300.0 |
275.0 |
300.0 |
300.0 |
| Iron ore, Carajas |
cents/dmtu |
9.84 |
28.09 |
32.50 |
28.79 |
30.03 |
29.50 |
30.00 |
31.00 |
32.00 |
32.50 |
| Lead |
cents/kg |
30.3 |
90.6 |
81.1 |
45.4 |
47.6 |
45.0 |
48.0 |
55.0 |
60.0 |
62.5 |
| Nickel |
$/mt |
2,85 |
6,52 |
8,86 |
8,64 |
5,95 |
6,7 |
7,5 |
7,5 |
6,7 |
6,8 |
| Silver |
cents/toz |
177.0 |
2,06 |
482.0 |
499.9 |
448.4 |
405.0 |
450.0 |
525.0 |
540.0 |
550.0 |
| Tin |
cents/kg |
367.3 |
1,68 |
608.5 |
543.6 |
448.4 |
405.0 |
450.0 |
525.0 |
540.0 |
550.0 |
| Zinc |
cents/kg |
29.6 |
76.1 |
151.4 |
112.8 |
88.6 |
77.0 |
84.0 |
100.0 |
105.0 |
110.0 |
| n.a. = Not available. | $ = U.S. dollar, cents = U.S. cent, bbl = barrel, cum = cubic meter, dmtu = dry metric ton unit, kg = kilogram, mmbtu = million British thermal unit, mt = metric ton, and toz = troy ounce.
Note: Projections as of November 12, 2002.
Source: World Bank, Economic Policy and Prospects Group. |
Copyright
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Clause de non-responsabilité
L'Association IZF s'efforce de diffuser des informations exactes et à jour, et corrigera, dans la mesure du possible, les erreurs qui lui seront signalées. Toutefois, elle ne peut en aucun cas être tenue responsable de l'utilisation et de l'interprétation de l'information contenue dans cette publication qui ne vise pas à délivrer des conseils personnalisés qui supposent l'étude et l'analyse de cas particuliers.
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Cette fiche a été réalisée par :
- UBIFRANCE, Agence Française pour le Développement International des Entreprises.
Revue par :
- Virginie OLIVE , Chef de projet IZF à UBIFRANCE,
- Laurent BELMUDES , Coordinateur et webmestre de l'Association IZF
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Date de parution : Mai 2003
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